Report – Al-Khabar Al-Yemeni:Current data indicate the possibility of a return to military confrontation between Sana’a and Riyadh, given the latter’s rejection of demands to end the comprehensive siege on the Yemeni people, and escalating field tensions, the latest of which was the Saudi air force targeting Sana’a International Airport. With anticipation of the Yemeni Armed Forces announcing an “important position” in the coming hours, observers raise questions about the changes that have occurred in the balance of power compared to when Saudi Arabia started the war on Yemen in 2015.The Qualitative Development in Sana’a’s Military Capabilities:At the start of the war in 2015, Sana’a’s military capabilities were limited, largely relying on conventional weapons, and it did not possess the ability to carry out long-range operations inside Saudi territory during the first months of the war. In contrast, Saudi Arabia and its allies had clear military superiority, especially in air power and advanced weaponry.Today, data confirm that Sana’a possesses an advanced military arsenal including ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles, and long-range drones, in addition to naval capabilities including anti-ship missiles and naval drones. These capabilities have proven their effectiveness during operations in support of Gaza, through targeting sensitive installations protected by layers of defensive belts, such as Ben Gurion Airport in the Israeli entity, and carrying out operations against ships linked to the entity in the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, and the Indian Ocean. They have succeeded in imposing a comprehensive ban on Israeli navigation and completely closing Eilat port, which is considered evidence of the development of its offensive and deterrent capabilities.Based on this, these capabilities will give Sana’a, in the event of renewed confrontation, the ability to carry out operations targeting Saudi air and naval navigation, constituting a direct blockade on the Kingdom.Popular Base and Ground Forces:One of the most prominent changes observers highlight is the expansion of the popular support base in areas under the control of the Sana’a government compared to 2015. They cite the organization of large popular events, the latest of which was on Friday, where millions of Yemenis came out in more than 1,300 squares in support of the announced position of the Sana’a leadership regarding the direction to break the siege. They consider that this mobilization, which no authority or government has enjoyed in decades, reflects a high level of popular support compared to previous years.At the level of ground forces, Saudi Arabia relies on a number of Yemeni military formations with different affiliations and leaderships, including the Islah party forces present in parts of Marib and Taiz governorates, Tareq Saleh’s forces on the western coast, the Giants’ forces distributed in some southern governorates, in addition to other formations such as Homeland Shield and Emergency Forces, mostly stationed in the eastern governorates and the Kingdom’s border strip, as well as parts of the Southern Transitional Council forces.Observers believe that the multiplicity of command centers and the differing objectives of these forces represent one of the most prominent challenges to any unified military action, especially given the continued political differences between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and the resulting differences in the loyalties of some of these formations.They pointed out that Riyadh’s transfer of forces from the southern governorates to the northern fronts will create a security vacuum that the Transitional Council forces could exploit to reorganize their ranks and regain control of the southern governorates.According to observers, Saudi Arabia may find itself primarily dependent on the Islah forces and some of Tareq Saleh’s forces, and these formations each have different agendas, and they have also proven their abysmal failure in achieving victories in recent years.The Nature of the Potential Battle:The most prominent feature of any future confrontation is the different nature of the war compared to 2015. While Saudi Arabia at that time had a great capacity to manage a long war without its vital facilities being subjected to continuous strikes, this is no longer possible, as the development of Sana’a’s missile and drone capabilities will make the Saudi depth vulnerable to strikes from the early stages of any escalation.According to analysts, targeting economic and vital installations will increase the economic cost of the war on the Kingdom, affect infrastructure and investments, which will push Riyadh to seek political solutions more quickly, rather than engage in a long war of attrition.
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مشاهدة what has changed in the balance of power between sana rsquo a and riyadh
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